EU climate target for 2040: Assessment and webinar invite | Oeko-Institut | Commentary on the European Commission's draft EU Climate Law
Dear all,
Today, the European Commission presented its proposal for the EU’s 2040 climate target and for the revision of the European Climate Law. According to the proposal, Member States are to reduce their net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.
At the same time, however, the proposal includes so-called ‘flexibilities’ that could lead to a weakening of actual emission reductions. For instance, carbon credits from outside the EU may be used to account for three percentage points of the 1990 emission levels to help meet the EU target. Until now, only domestic emission reductions were eligible to count toward achieving EU climate targets.
Oeko-Institut is publishing an expert assessment of the Commission’s proposal today: 'The EU’s 2040 climate target – Assessment of the proposal by the EU Commission'.
Key findings at a glance:
International carbon credits distort the climate target accounting: If international carbon credits are counted toward the EU’s 2040 climate target, net emissions would increase by 30 percent. As a result, gross emissions – i.e. emissions without accounting for CO₂ removals – would be only 80 percent below 1990 levels.
Carbon Dioxide Removals (CDRs) in emissions trading pose risks: After 2035, the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere could gain importance within the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). To ensure that genuine emission reductions are not undermined, the European Commission proposes allowing only permanent and domestic removals to be credited until 2035 – a necessary and important proposal.
Cost efficiency versus climate ambition: Cross-sectoral flexibility entails risks. Increasing flexibility between sectors, as proposed by the European Commission, could endanger achievement of the 2050 climate target – which is why such flexibility should only be permitted under strict conditions.
Jakob Graichen states: ‘The European Commission’s proposal for the 2040 climate target is an important step, but it relies too heavily on flexibility in some crucial areas. Measures such as the use of international carbon credits or carbon dioxide removals must not result in real emission reductions being sidelined. To ensure the credibility of the climate target, clear limits are needed – along with a consistent focus on actual emission reductions.’
You can quote the above key points from the assessment and the quote from Jakob Graichen as a press release.
--
We also like to remind you of the webinar ‘ The Commission proposal for an EU 2040 climate target – An initial assessment of key issues’.
Friday, 4 July 2025, 11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. (Central European Summer Time, CEST)
The webinar provides a preliminary analysis of the key elements of the European Commission's proposal for the new EU climate target for 2040: How ambitious is the new target? What role do international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement play? And how are the land use sector and international aviation and shipping accounted for?
Speakers: Dr Johanna Cludius, Jakob Graichen, Dr Lambert Schneider, Dr Hannes Böttcher (Oeko-Institut)
Please register here: https://lets-meet.org/reg/a68a7111e7cb571243
You will receive the link and access instructions by email after registering.
--
The following contacts are available to answer any questions you may have on this topic:
On the use of international carbon credits: Dr Lambert Schneider, Research Coordinator for International Climate Policy at Oeko-Institut, l.schneider@oeko.de, tel.: +49 160 5333352.
On the ambition and further development of the EU climate target: Jakob Graichen, Senior Researcher in the Energy & Climate division at Oeko-Institut, j.graichen@oeko.de, tel.: +49 30 405085-366.
Oeko-Institut Mandy Schossig PR & Communications Borkumstrasse 2 D-13189 Berlin Phone: +49 30 405085-334 m.schossig@oeko.de