EU multibillion transport megaprojects: mind the gaps

EU multibillion transport megaprojects: mind the gaps

Construction costs of major EU transport infrastructures on the rise
2030 completion target for the core transport network now out of reach
Revised EU Regulation could help to avoid some recurrent issues in future projects

In the context of unforeseen crises, the construction of Europe’s flagship transport infrastructures has been affected by rising costs and further delays in implementation. This is the main conclusion of a new report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA), updating its observations and findings from a similar audit performed in 2020. As a result, the EU auditors have changed their assessment of the 2030 goal for the completion of the core Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) from “unlikely to be met” five years ago to a clear “will not be met” now.

Given the importance of core cross-border transport corridors for European citizens and businesses, the EU auditors have updated the key data and observations from their 2020 special report on this subject. The outlook in 2025 is worse than in 2020, and falls far short of what was initially envisaged. Of course, since 2020, these megaprojects have faced a series of additional challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. New regulatory requirements and unexpected technical issues have also arisen.

“EU transport flagship infrastructures are supposed to reshape Europe, bringing people closer together and facilitating economic activity”, said Annemie Turtelboom, the ECA Member who led this update report. “But three decades after most of them were designed, we are still a long way from cutting the ribbon on these projects, and a long way from achieving the intended improvements in passenger and freight flows across Europe.”

Many megaprojects have been dogged by cost increases. In 2020, the EU auditors reported that the eight examined megaprojects had experienced an overall real cost increase (i.e. net of inflation) of 47%, compared to original estimates. Today, the difference is almost twice as high, at +82%. This increase has been driven by budgetary slippages in two projects: Rail Baltica (whose costs have ballooned: +160% in the last 6 years to almost four times higher than initial estimates), and the Lyon-Turin rail link (+23% in the last 6 years – more than double the original projection). Even though the trend has slowed down in recent years (+9% in the last 6 years), construction costs of the Canal Seine Nord Europe have tripled in total since the project began. The impact on EU co-funding is not automatic, as it is not directly linked to the total cost. In any event, the eight megaprojects altogether received an additional €7.9 billion in EU grants since the 2020 analysis, meaning that the total amount of EU funding disbursed for these infrastructures is now €15.3 billion.

As regards implementation schedules, the EU auditors noted in their 2020 report an average delay of 11 years compared to original plans. Their 2025 update shows that the situation has further deteriorated. For the five megaprojects for which information is available, the average delay has now extended to 17 years. The Basque Y railway line, which was supposed to be operational by 2010 according to its initial timeline and by 2023 according to the revised plan from 2020, is now expected to be ready by 2030 at the very earliest (the project promoters consider 2035 more realistic). The opening of the Lyon-Turin rail link is now forecast for 2033 (not 2015 as originally planned or 2030 as per the 2020 schedule). The Brenner Base Tunnel is now expected to open in 2032 at the earliest, and not in 2016 or 2028 as previously envisaged. The Canal Nord Seine Europe was initially due to commence operations in 2010, a date which was later postponed to 2028; 2032 is now considered more likely. The conclusion is unambiguous: the 2030 objective for the completion of the EU TEN-T core network will undoubtedly be missed.

Despite these issues, the European Commission has only used once the main (though limited) legal tool at its disposal to receive explanations for delays (Article 56 of the 2013 TEN-T regulation), and not on any of the eight examined megaprojects. The auditors expect the recent revision of the TEN-T Regulation to increase the role and power of the European Commission in overseeing the completion of the network. But they stress that this would mostly have an impact on future megaprojects. They also note that the impact of such a change on future infrastructure projects will ultimately depend on whether legal provisions are actually implemented and complied with by EU countries.

Background information

The Trans‑European Transport Network (TEN‑T) is the backbone of the Europe‑wide network for road, rail, inland waterway, sea and air transport. Megaprojects – large transport projects, often with a cross-border dimension – are key to achieving better connectivity across Europe, removing bottlenecks, and facilitating cross‑border mobility. In 2013, the EU member states agreed that the core TEN-T network should be ready by 2030.

Special report 02/2026, “EU transport infrastructure - Further delays and some cost increases, but a reinforced governance framework is in place for the future (an update of ECA special report 10/2020)”, is available on the ECA website, together with a one-page overview of the key facts and findings.

This report is an update of an analysis made in 2020 (ECA Special Report 10/2020). It contains information about developments since then, in particular in terms of the cost and time schedules of eight transport megaprojects: four railways (Rail Baltica, Lyon-Turin, Brenner Base Tunnel, Basque Y), one waterway (Seine-Scheldt), one motorway (A1 in Romania) and two multimodal connections (Fehmarn Belt road/rail link and E59 rail link to ports in Poland). These megaprojects directly concern 13 EU countries: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Spain, France, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Austria, Poland, Romania and Finland.

Contact:

ECA press office: press@eca.europa.eu