In Gold We Trust Report 2023 "Showdown"
Schaan / Vienna (ots)
On May 24, 2023, this year's - now 17th - In Gold We Trust report was presented at an international press conference broadcast live on the Internet. The authors of the report are the two fund managers Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark J. Valek from the Liechtenstein-based asset manager Incrementum AG.
The 400+ page In Gold We Trust report is renowned worldwide and has been dubbed the "gold standard of all gold studies" by the Wall Street Journal. Last year's edition was downloaded and shared more than 2 million times in total. This makes the In Gold We Trust report the world's most widely read gold study. In addition to the German and English versions, the annual publication has also been published in Chinese and Spanish for several years.
In Gold We Trust Report 2023 - Short Version
Live streaming or recording of the press conference
Presentation, press photos and infographics
The In Gold We Trust Report 2023 covers topics including:
Status quo of gold: price development in the last 12 months, most important influencing factors and trends on the gold market, includingStatus quo of debt dynamicsStatus Quo of the Inflation TrendShowdown leitmotifThe monetary policy showdownDe-Dollarization: the final showdown?Showdown in the sound money campThe rising importance of gold markets in the East: the looming showdown with the WestSilver's golden era?Mining stocks - fundamental and technical situationThe social component of ESGUpdated gold price forecast
The report also includes interviews on the following topics:
Interview with star analyst Zoltan Pozsar on "Multipolarization of the International Monetary System, Reserve Currency Status and Inflation."Conversation with market strategist and historian Russell Napier on sovereign debt, the politicization of commercial banks, and financial repression.
The key messages of the In Gold We Trust Report 2023
The effects of monetary tightening are yet to hit home
The time factor is significantly underestimated in terms of the impact of interest rate hikes. In view of the precarious debt situation in many industrialized countries and the rapid tightening of monetary policy, especially in the US, the authors expect a recession and a monetary policy showdown in the next 12 months.
The monetary policy showdown approaches
Due to the increasing fragility of banks, the real economy and financial markets, a monetary policy showdown will ensue in view of the weakening economy and the fact that core inflation rates remain significantly too high. A departure from restrictive monetary policy would have far-reaching consequences for inflation, central bank confidence, which is already under attack, and the gold price.
Inflation rates falling in the short term, rising again in the medium term
Even though inflation rates in the US and the euro zone have fallen recently, the authors assume that another wave of inflation will follow and that the environment of "Stagflation 2.0" - the title and leitmotif of the In Gold We Trust report 2022 - will accompany us. Arguments such as demographics, the increased focus on fiscal policy, greenflation, de-globalization and global rearmament speak for a structurally - and not merely temporarily - inflationary environment with high volatility of inflation rates and possibly several waves of inflation.
De-Dollarization: Monetary manifestation of the geopolitical showdown
As early as last year's In Gold We Trust report, it was strongly suggested that the freezing of Russia's foreign reserves in February 2022 would go down as a historic moment in international monetary history. Record central bank demand for gold in 2022 was one of the responses. Structurally higher central bank gold demand will act as a key driver of the gold bull market.
Shifts in gold demand:
Together, India and China have officially imported between 34,000 and 36,000 tons of gold over the past 20 years. China and India are also becoming increasingly important in terms of consumer demand. The two countries now account for 48% of consumer demand.
ESG: The social component of ESG
For the fourth time, the report specifically examines ESG issues in the mining equities sector. This year, the focus is on the social aspect of ESG.
Technical Analysis
The gold price "flirted" with a new all-time USD high again in the first half of the year, but failed to do so in the short term. While long-term indicators such as the Coppock indicator are still clearly bullish, shorter-term models such as the Midas Touch Gold Model(TM) and the seasonal patterns currently suggest a temporarily more cautious outlook, which could result in attractive buying opportunities.
Long-term price target (2030) for the gold price of USD 4,800 confirmed.
Based on the assumption that a recession will occur, the authors consider new all-time highs of the gold price in U.S. dollars and prices of USD 2,300-2,400 within 12 months to be probable. They continue to adhere to the decade price target of USD 4,800 against the backdrop of the monetary, geopolitical and fiscal situation.
Incrementum AG
Incrementum AG is an independent investment and asset management company based in the Principality of Liechtenstein. The company was founded in 2013. Independence, reliability and autonomy are the cornerstones of the company's philosophy. The company is 100 percent owned by the five partners.
Disclaimer:
This publication is for information purposes only and does not represent investment advice, investment analysis nor an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual investment or other advice.
All publications of Incrementum AG are considered marketing communications or other information and are not investment recommendations within the context of the Market Abuse Regulation. Marketing communications and other information are not published in compliance with the legal provisions promoting the independence of investment recommendations and are not subject to the prohibition of trading following the dissemination of investment recommendations. Investment recommendations are not published by Incrementum AG as a matter of principle.
The information contained in this publication is based on the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without further notice. Unless otherwise stated in the publication, no updates will be made.The authors have taken the greatest possible care in selecting the sources of information used and ( as well as Incrementum AG) accept no liability for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information or sources of information provided or any liability or damages of any kind arising therefrom.
Copyright: 2023 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved.
Contact:
Incrementum AG
Im alten Riet 102
FL-9494 Schaan
Liechtenstein
www.incrementum.li
www.ingoldwetrust.li
Email:
Ronald-Peter Stöferle: rps@incrementum.li
Mark Valek: mjv@incrementum.li
Press information (photos, press release): ingoldwetrust.report/press/
Original content of: Incrementum AG, transmitted by news aktuell